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This one has the potential to get ugly early. Wednesday NBA Free play. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Chicago at 9 pm et on Wednesday. This is a clear letdown spot for the Pelicans coming off four straight wins, including a victory over the Rockets last night.
I just don't believe it's going to be easy for New Orleans to ramp up its intensity again on no rest against an uninspiring Bulls squad that has posted a record this season and comes in off a home loss against the lowly Wizards on Monday. It is worth noting that the Bulls rank an impressive third in the league in pace rating and should find some success employing an up-tempo gameplan against a Pelicans squad that checks in 22nd in the NBA in defensive rating.
Chicago hasn't been much better than New Orleans defensively, ranking 20th in defensive rating, which should open the door for the Pels' to keep it rolling offensively. New Orleans is a top 10 team in terms of field goal percentage and should get plenty of second chance opportunities given it ranks T3rd in offensive boards this season.
This one has all the makings of a track meet - just as we saw the last time these two teams hooked up last February we won with the Pelicans in a victory. Denver is just too powerful for the Cavaliers. Look for them to assert themselves early and control the paint on both sides of the floor. This one has the potential to get ugly early.
Wednesday NBA Free play. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Chicago at 9 pm et on Wednesday. This is a clear letdown spot for the Pelicans coming off four straight wins, including a victory over the Rockets last night. I just don't believe it's going to be easy for New Orleans to ramp up its intensity again on no rest against an uninspiring Bulls squad that has posted a record this season and comes in off a home loss against the lowly Wizards on Monday.
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Their second-best scorer, Jaylen Brown, is questionable in this game; if he is out this spread will jump up, so get on the Jazz as early as you can. The Celtics are only straight up in their last six games with three of their losses coming to mediocre teams. The Jazz have covered three of their last four games against the Celtics dating back to the season.
Utah has also won 15 of its last 16 games and are just rolling. This spread is not big enough at all. Expect the Jazz to dominate in the fourth quarter and cover the spread. Both of these teams are good at hitting the under in their situations in this game. Seven of the 11 games that the Jazz have played at home this season have stayed under the total.
The Celtics and the Jazz have two of the best defenses in the league. Boston only allows points per game, seventh in the NBA, and Utah only allows points per game—third in the league. Each of the last three meetings between these two teams have stayed under the total and they have stayed under the total by a ridiculous average of I am expecting a slow-paced game in which defense is key to both teams.
This should lead to the game staying under the total. Take the under in this matchup of potential NBA Finals teams. After a home upset win against the Bulls, the Magic could not keep up the momentum—losing to Chicago in the follow-up contest. They hit the road having won only one road game in , over Minnesota. The Magic are playing without two starters, as Markelle Fultz is out for the season and Aaron Gordon is likely out for the rest of the month.
Scoring is the big challenge. Only once in their last six games have they topped points. That inconsistency means they are playing catchup most of the game. Portland has some significant injuries, too, but in general scoring has not been a problem—it is holding back opponents. Dame is averaging 29 ppg and is one of the few players who can score a lot and still be relatively efficient. In the absence of others, wing Gary Trent Jr. With Portland, you just never know from game to game whether the defense will be good enough.
Portland is a small favorite in this spot. The Blazers have been dreadful against the number at home this season going a lowly ATS. That includes ATS as home favorites. He is more reliable, too. Dame alone might be the difference in this one, but I also like the supporting cast he has better. Take Portland. The average total in those road games is points so we need a little more in this one and I think we will get it.
Still, there is enough talent to score enough against the Magic. Their best chances of winning right now are to let it fly and hope for the best. Correlating it with the side handicap, the last four times they won they have gone over the total. Take the over. The Sacramento Kings are rolling, having won four straight and seven of their last eight. They will fancy their chances of doing just that again tonight against a Philadelphia 76ers team that does not travel well.
The 76ers have an impressive record at home, but on the road have managed to win only six in 11 games. Their scoring really drops off when they leave Philadelphia, going from per game to with their field-goal accuracy dropping off from 49 to 45 percent.
The Kings, on the other hand, average points per game at home while shooting at a 48 percent clip. Matchup-wise the Kings will be able to utilize Harrison Barnes to limit the effectiveness of Ben Simmons. Barnes is a strong defender and possesses the size and speed to matchup with Simmons well. Fox has been on fire lately and was able to torch the Clippers for 36 points in his last outing.
Danny Green and Seth Curry do not have the physical attributes to stay in front of him, so the task may fall to Simmons, opening up favorable matchups elsewhere. Tyrese Haliburton has been phenomenal for the Kings lately and is likely to tip the bench advantage in favor of the Kings. This young Kings team is hot and playing with a lot of confidence, back them to keep it going tonight. This line seems set a little high for this one.
As mentioned earlier the 76ers do drop off offensively when they travel. They have also only been involved in one game over their last eight in which this total was surpassed, and that was against the Brooklyn Nets—who seem to refuse to defend anyone. And while the Kings are still 28th in the league, allowing points per game, they have done a much better job defending of late. Over their last eight, only the Raptors have managed to surpass the point mark against them.
Joel Embiid will likely have a size advantage against the Kings, which should lead to more post-ups for the 76ers—which in turn will slow the pace down. Look for both teams to get to the somewhere around the point mark but to still come in under this total. The Hawks took advantage of a tired Toronto team to break a three-game losing streak on Saturday night. Now they hit the road but they have had three full days of rest heading into Dallas.
With him out they are getting more production from Cam Reddish, but he is inconsistent. Both teams are scoring lots of points right now so this one should be fun. Dallas has won back-to-back games for the first time in a while. They did not cover in either of those games, though, and they have just one cover in their last Last year they were the top offense in the league and they are showing signs of getting back there.
Atlanta does not have a great counter for massive wing Kristaps Porzingis, so I expect him to have a good game. Dallas has been atrocious vs. I know I have been burned more than once by the Mavericks, but there is still a lot to like on Wednesday night.
They are healthy and have been playing better of late. Atlanta is one of the streakiest teams in the NBA and if this one becomes an up-and-down duel between Doncic and Trae Young then I like the Mavs to win that one. I am not overrating the Hawks coming off that Toronto win. The Raptors were in a bad spot, and as a result the Hawks are inflated right now.
Take Dallas. The total on this one looks like oddsmakers are expecting a game in which the offenses are in control. That is in keeping with the preferred styles of both teams and when they met at the beginning of the month, that game went over—starting a streak of four overs that brings the Mavs into this game. Atlanta comes into this one feeling good, too, after making more than half of their threes against Toronto.
That was a season-high mark and it will encourage the team to let it fly in this one. Lots of long rebounds will make it easy for both teams in transition. Look for both teams to score in the s and cash this over with ease. The Brooklyn Nets have dominated the NBA headlines this season, but rarely have they dominated their opponents on the court. Brooklyn has the worst ATS record in the entire league at after losing outright to the Detroit Pistons on Tuesday, and the Pistons entered play with the worst record in the Eastern Conference.
Only the Sacramento Kings are allowing more points in the paint. The lack of an inside defensive presence could be especially problematic against the Indiana Pacers, who score The Nets have been extremely hyped up due to their big-three but the on-court results are yet to manifest. Expect Brooklyn to underperform relative to its reputation once again on Wednesday evening. Death, taxes, and the Nets game hitting the over.
On Tuesday the score was with two minutes and 15 seconds remaining against the Pistons. Brooklyn still managed to hit over LA shot only 41 percent from the field in the upset loss against Sacramento which is well below their season average. Paul George is bothered with a toe injury and his status is unknown ahead of this game. Minnesota has had a turbulent season so far, mostly without their best player Karl Anthony Towns who has had issues with covid plus a wrist injury which should keep him out until mid-February.
Their latest loss came at the hands of the Dallas Mavericks , Malik Beasley had 30 points in the loss and Anthony Edwards had 22 making another case for Rookie of the year honors. The Clippers already beat Minnesota once this season back in late December and they are heavy favorites yet again.
LA has won four of the last five head-to-head and are ATS in their last five road games overall. Take the Clippers to cover. Both teams scored over points in the last 11 games dating back to the season. The over has been the bet in the last six Clipper road games at Minnesota and in eight of the last 11 overall between the two teams.
Minnesota is averaging They are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA allowing Their last encounter resulted in combined points scored. Take the over in this one. The New Orleans Pelicans are playing the second leg of a back-to-back situation and have to travel from New Orleans to Chicago for this matchup.
Even though the Pelicans won by 29 last night, the game was a lot closer than the final. The Pelicans have only been favorites once on the second night of a back to back this season. They were two point favorites against the Houston Rockets. The Pelicans let up points and lost by The Chicago Bulls are coming off of a devastating loss to the Washington Wizards in which there was a debatable no call at the end of the game on Zach LaVine attempting a game tying layup.
The Bulls are stellar against the spread against Western Conference opponents They should get off to a quick start against the tired legs of the Pelicans and not look back. The Pelicans may be thin off the bench because their sixth man, Josh Hart, just played 40 minutes on Tuesday night. That may force Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson to have to carry the load and I do not think they will be able to.
I am expecting this game to be close down the stretch and either team to win by three points or less and for the Bulls to cover the spread. Also, four of their last five home games have stayed under the total. Daniel Gafford is now the starting center for the Bulls because of all of their injuries. Gafford is a great rim protector but has had to be on the bench a lot due to matchups.
Against the Pelicans and Steven Adams, Gafford should be able to play 25 minutes or more. That would help the Bulls stop Williamson and ultimately keep the game under the total. Even though the Pelicans do not play a lot of defense, the Bulls defense should be able to single handedly keep this game under this very high game total.
After losing at Phoenix, the Cavaliers have now fallen to on the season and are currently on a four-game losing streak. Collin Sexton has been a positive surprise this season averaging Andre Drummond is averaging Denver has hit a bit of a rough patch of their own losing their last three, however two of those three loses were against the Bucks and Lakers.
Jamal Murray really struggled while playing with a sore left knee in the loss to the Bucks scoring just 11 points while shooting 23 percent from the field. Nikola Jokic, on the other hand, is playing out of his mind. After going for 50 in the loss to Sacramento, he had 35 points and 12 rebounds against Milwaukee. This is the perfect opportunity for the Nuggets to get back on track against one of the worst road teams in the NBA.
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